NCAAF Week 5: The Ultimate Guide to the Top 25

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

The Clemson Tigers spent their last week in the top ten of the AP Top 25 after 97 straight weeks in those ranks. Their OT loss to No. 23 NC State gave Clemson their second loss, eliminating the Tigers from the Playoff conversation and opening up what could be an exciting year of college football.

With Clemson and the ACC all but eliminated from postseason play, the case can be made for a bunch of different teams to be dreaming of a playoff berth at this point.

No. 7 Cincinnati is looking to become the first Group of Five team to make the four-team playoff. Luke Fickell’s squad is 12-0 in regular-season games the past two seasons.

No. 9 Notre Dame is still undefeated, and the strength of schedule always makes the Fighting Irish a lock for the Playoff if they go the distance without losing. Brian Kelly became Notre Dame’s winningest head coach after his team’s win over Wisconsin last week at Soldier Field. That made Kelly’s record 106-39 in his 12 years in South Bend, but he is still without the illustrious National Championship that would cement his legacy. Maybe it is time he truly joined the likes of Rockne, Holtz, and Leahy with a ring of his own.

Here is the schedule for the Top 25 in Week 5

Friday, October 1

No. 13 BYU (4-0) at Utah State (3-1)

What if No. 13 BYU joined the Big 12 a year earlier, putting them in a Power Five conference this year? They may have been competing with Oklahoma for the spot in the Playoff had that been the case. The Cougars have rattled off four straight wins to start the year, three coming against Pac-12 opponents. With a more competent SOS, the Cougars could have been playoff dreaming.

BYU should be able to hold on to the ‘Old Wagon Wheel’ against Utah State this week. The Aggies are 5-62 all-time vs. AP Top 25 opponents.

No. 5 Iowa (4-0) at Maryland (4-0)

It has been a while since the Hawkeyes were this highly touted at this point in the season. They are the second-highest ranked Big Ten team in Week 5, setting up for a blockbuster showdown between them and No. 4 Penn State next week.

We should be able to see how Iowa’s defense looks when it is tested against a capable offense. Maryland enters averaging 37.3 PPG, 3rd most in the Big Ten behind Ohio State and Michigan. Taulia Tagovailoa, Tua’s younger brother, has been stellar through the start of the season. He has already thrown for 1,340 yards and 10 TDs through four games.

Saturday, October 2

No. 25 Clemson (2-2) vs. Boston College (4-0)

It was a very quick descent for Clemson after they suffered their second loss of the season last week to No. 23 NC State. The Tigers dropped all the way to the brink of being unranked, their playoff chances are gone, and now they have to find a reason to compete every week.

The ACC title is still within reach with just one conference loss. But now, every conference foe seems liable to give Clemson trouble. An undefeated Boston College team would have rolled over for Clemson a year or two ago. Now, they could just put the dagger in Dabo’s ACC dynasty.

No. 24 Wake Forest (4-0) vs. Louisville (3-1)

Clemson’s loss opened the door for so many teams to compete for so many different things this year (playoff bids, conference titles, etc.) Wake Forest is one of the many teams to benefit from the fall of Clemson; the undefeated Demon Deacons now have a clear path to the ACC Championship Game, and, just maybe, a playoff berth.

A win over Louisville could help prove they are on that trajectory. The Cardinals are still in play for the ACC title after rattling off three straight wins following their season-opening loss to Ole Miss.

No. 23 NC State (3-1) vs. Louisiana Tech (2-2)

It just felt right to see NC State finally conquer Clemson. In 2016, they were a missed field goal away from upsetting the Tigers in the midst of their dominance. Clemson would go on to win that game in overtime.

That script looked like it was playing out again as NC State’s kicker Chris Dunn missed a field goal that would have won the game as time expired. However, he would redeem himself in OT to complete the upset, giving Clemson their second loss and NC State one of the biggest wins in program history.

The Wolfpack should have no problem with Louisiana Tech this week. Is NC State for real? Maybe. They certainly have one of the easiest pathways to the ACC title after getting through Clemson. Wake Forest is their lone ranked foe left on their schedule.

No. 22 Auburn (3-1) at LSU (3-1)

After a non-conference loss to UCLA, many wrote off Coach O and the LSU Tigers. However, they have rebounded to win three straight games, including a gritty three-point victory over Mississippi State last week. A Week 5 upset of Auburn could put LSU right back in the Top 25.

The most interesting thing to watch in this game is how Auburn QB Bo Nix (and possibly TJ Finley) deals with the LSU pass rush. LSU enters the contest leading the nation with 20 sacks through four games.

No. 20 UCLA (3-1) vs. Arizona State (3-1)

A few weeks back, this matchup was shaping up to be a blockbuster matchup between two Pac-12 teams. UCLA and Arizona State were both ranked and undefeated, with UCLA expectations surging following their upset win over LSU. However, both teams suffered non-conference losses, leaving them both with one loss as they get ready to collide.

The winner of this game will become the favorite to win the Pac-12 South. This matchup may come down to which quarterback plays the cleaner game. Arizona State QB Jayden Daniels had two turnovers in last year’s loss to UCLA; let’s see if he can avenge that poor performance.

No. 19 Oklahoma State (4-0) vs. No. 21 Baylor (4-0)

Both of these teams have surging expectations after beating ranked opponents in Week 4. Oklahoma State was able to hand Kansas State their first loss of the season while Baylor gave Iowa State their second loss of 2021. Now, these two teams are the top contenders to Oklahoma in the Big 12.

Look for a fantastic quarterback battle to decide this week’s blockbuster Big 12 battle. Gerry Bohanon and the Baylor Bears have been tearing it up through four weeks, averaging nearly 600 yards and 43 points per game. He will have to outdo Spencer Sanders and the Cowboys on the road.

No. 18 Fresno St (4-1) at Hawaii (2-3)

After an exciting start to the season for the Fresno State Bulldogs, this week will serve as a bit of a vacation game. Not only are they on their way to Hawaii, but it will be a private affair as the Hawaiian government still has large gathering restrictions in place due to COVID-19.

Quarterback Jake Haener is working his way into NFL Draft conversations with his play so far. He leads the FBS in passing yards (1,842 yards) and is ranked third in passing YPG (368.4 YPG).  The Bulldogs should reach the halfway point of their season with their fifth win.

No. 17 Michigan State (4-0) vs. Western Kentucky (1-2)

MSU got their first real test last week as it took an overtime field goal to escape a matchup with Nebraska at home. Things slowed down for that explosive Mel Tucker offense once a decent defense lined up on the other side. Still, an OT interception pushed the Spartans past the Cornhuskers and stayed undefeated.

Thanks to the early Big Ten games, the Spartans have one more non-conference matchup before the thick of their schedule gets going. MSU will likely be 5-0 once things get going; not many people would have predicted that to start the season.

No. 16 Coastal Carolina (4-0) vs. UL Monroe (2-1)

As Coastal Carolina continues to win, they extend a number of winning streaks that surround their team and have been going on for quite some time. Last week’s win over UMass was their 16th straight regular-season victory, tied for the longest active streak in College Football with Alabama. They also have nine straight conference wins as they open up Sun Belt play this week with UL Monroe.

The Warhawks were the last team to beat the Chanticleers in conference play, taking a 45-42 victory at home in 2019 prior to Coastal’s accent into dominance. Maybe they can find some way to repeat that performance this week, but that looks unlikely.

No. 15 Texas A&M (3-1) vs Mississippi State (2-2)

Another year, another disappointing early loss for the Texas A&M. This Aggies team was supposed to be one of the top threats to Alabama and Georgia out of the SEC West. Now, they are looking to find their offense again after managing only 10 points against Arkansas. Mississippi State could hand them their second loss before Bama even comes up on the schedule.

It might be even harder to pin down what this Mississippi State team is now after last week. They have suffered back-to-back close losses to SEC opponents, but also beat NC State by two touchdowns earlier in the year. Now NC State is a Top 25 team. That would seemingly mean the Bulldogs have a chance to compete with A&M this week. But with Mike Leach at the helm, who really knows?

No. 14 Michigan (4-0) at Wisconsin (1-2)

Michigan became an even harder team to evaluate after their one-score win over Rutgers in Week 4. In the first half, they looked like the dominant team that ran for 300+ yards in the first three weeks. In the second half, they could not move the ball in any fashion as Rutgers almost stormed all the way back.

Michigan has not beaten Wisconsin in Madison since 2001. However, the Badgers have not been reeling after a loss as they took at Soldier Field against Notre Dame in a long time as well. Michigan is favored, but this should be a classic, grind it out, Big Ten football game.

No. 11 Ohio State at Rutgers

There is undoubtedly a ton of college football fans watching every move of the Ohio State Buckeyes at this point in the season. Following Clemson’s loss, another loss for the Buckeyes could open the floodgates for a ton of new teams to enter the College Football Playoff conversation. That makes everything that Ryan Day’s team important, even road trips to Rutgers.

It will be interesting to see how the QB situation works out for the Buckeyes on Saturday. Starter CJ Stroud sat out last week to rest his shoulder but is reportedly on track to return against Rutgers. Seeing how a young QB bounces back on the road after sitting out a week will be interesting to see. Rutgers is looking for an iconic win for former Buckeye coordinator Greg Schiano.

No. 10 Florida (3-1) at Kentucky (4-0)

Florida bounced back from a heartbreaking loss to Bama with an easy rivalry win over Tennessee last week. Meanwhile, Kentucky is on the brink of the Top 25 after rattling off four straight wins to start the year. An upset this week could have Kentucky dreaming of an SEC title appearance.

QB Emory Jones cemented himself as the starter last week against Tennessee, racking up 353 total yards (209 pass yds, 144 rush yds) and two TDs in the Gators’ win. With a big week against Kentucky, he could sneak into the Heisman conversation; he leads a top 10 team in passing yards (688 yds) and rushing yards (376 yds) as they continue to progress through their SEC schedule.

No. 7 Cincinnati (3-0) at No. 9 Notre Dame (4-0)

Who would have thought Notre Dame’s best chance to improve their CFP resume would come against Cincinnati in Week 5? That is where we stand after teams like North Carolina, USC, and Stanford have all fallen well outside the Top 25. This is the last Top 25 team left on Notre Dame’s schedule.

On the flip side, this is the best opportunity for Cincy to prove they belong in the CFP as well. A win over an undefeated Notre Dame puts them right in the thick of that conversation.

No. 6 Oklahoma (4-0) at Kansas State (3-1)

The struggles of Clemson and Ohio State have somewhat masked the struggles of Oklahoma to his point. They are still undefeated, but they have come dangerously close to losing to a couple of less than stellar opponents. Former Heisman hopeful Spencer Rattler was hearing boos last week as things felt like they took a turn for the worse against West Virginia.

They have to deal with a K-State team hot off an embarrassing loss to OK State. This seems like a game primed for an upset; that would be three wins in a row over the Sooners for the Wildcats.

No. 4 Penn State (4-0) vs. Indiana (2-2)

The preseason love for Indiana is long gone, but this Hoosiers team is still dangerous. It was this game last year that put Indiana and QB Michael Penix Jr. on the map after his diving 2-point conversion gave Tom Allen’s group a marquee win. Now, they hope to use a game like this to spark life back into their season.

The Nittany Lions run game will be the biggest thing to watch for in this matchup. They rank 111th in the country in rushing and could be without starting running back Noah Cain on Saturday. If Indiana can take away the passing game from Penn State, it could be a rough game for the offense of the Nittany Lions.

No. 3 Oregon (4-0) at Stanford (2-2)

Many of Oregon’s best teams have lost their way playing on the road at Stanford. The Ducks were National Title contenders in 2012 and 2013, only to be squashed by the Cardinal in heartbreaking fashion.

Could Stanford do that again in 2021? Sure, but it seems unlikely. Oregon has been the model of consistency on both sides of the ball this year (412 YPG, 405 YAPG) while Stanford has been anything but.

No. 2 Georgia (4-0) vs. No. 8 Arkansas (4-0)

With the Razorbacks’ win over A&M last week, this game gained a whole lot more significance. Now, whoever wins this game is in the driver’s seat for the SEC East crown. Arkansas looks less like an up-and-coming team and more like a true contender all of a sudden. And Georgia’s marquee win, their one-TD win over Clemson, looks worse and worse by the day.

No. 1 Alabama (4-0) vs. No. 12 Ole Miss (4-0)

Is Ole Miss legit? Is Lane Kiffin the prize of the head coaching world right now? Is Matt Corral a true Heisman candidate? All of those questions can be answered this week if Ole Miss can find a way to upset Bama.

Still, Nick Saban is 23-0 vs. his former assistants. It seems unlikely that Kiffin will be the one to add a blemish to that record.